Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
