Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a ability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
